Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Intelligence

Will the Lojbos infiltrate and destroy ma pona pi toki pona?

manifold-92qd5soqyg · open · manifold

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integrityelevatedforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

Will the Lojbos infiltrate and destroy ma pona pi toki pona?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · manifold
Source →

Prophecy fair estimate · yes

45%

Fair band 43–47%

Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality low · coverage 23%. · venues eligible 1/1

λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%

market_aware 45% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-10-10T05:16:30.968+00:00

Persisted · aware 45% · blind — · snap cutoff 2026-10-10T05:16:31.469+00:00

Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.

asOf (local → ISO)

Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).

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Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.