Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

External SaaS

External market reads

Live snapshots from third-party venues. Prophecy does not execute trades, custody funds, or guarantee prices.

Probability ingest: 2026-08-10T06:37:21.463Z · ok=true · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Read-only · not Prophecy markets · forecast integrity advisories are informational (forecast_intelligence / paper) — no stake CTA · comply with each venue’s terms and your local law. Empty venue lists usually mean upstream timeout/block — check /events for ingested ledger rows.

Polymarket

Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Yes 4% · No 96%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 16% · No 84%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 19% · No 81%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 5% · No 95%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 5% · No 95%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 1% · No 99%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0% · No 100%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 8% · No 92%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Polymarket →

Kalshi

KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026D33B50E31D9-93E97564994: yes Cezar Stefan Bentzel
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20265C366D91449-7ECED3B7AAE: yes Pittsburgh
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20261A83CC1D9EC-9EC799B4F8E: yes Both Teams To Score
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S202677E55ACFCE1-FC8C4C9D450: yes Stefan Storch
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20264033E334B72-F516D8008E5: yes Stefan Storch
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20269C27EBD88E1-7FC4FC73B68: yes Cho / Jeong
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S2026BA00601C80B-15C45ECC99B: yes Pittsburgh
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →
KXMVECROSSCATEGORY-SHARD1-S20260235E80BBFD-2397150A839: yes Felix Auger-Aliassime
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Kalshi →

Manifold

70%+ regular wearable use by EOY 2031?
Yes 23% · No 77%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
Will I switch to an Apple phone by October 15, 2026? (My Samsung phone is experiencing unprecedented problems.)
Yes 62% · No 38%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
Daily Coinflip
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread · horizon stub
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
Link Vào W88 Mới Nhất – Trang Chủ Cá Cược Uy Tín
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
Yes 60% · No 40%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
How much compute will SpaceX report as of December 31, 2027?
Yes 50% · No 50%
Forecast integritylowforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
no elevated integrity stress in stub inputs
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?
Yes 90% · No 10%
Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: spread
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA
Open on Manifold →