External SaaS
Probability ingest: 2026-10-10T15:15:15.075Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops
Read-only · not Prophecy markets · forecast integrity advisories are informational (forecast_intelligence / paper) — no stake CTA · comply with each venue’s terms and your local law. Empty venue lists usually mean upstream timeout/block — check /events for ingested ledger rows.
Empty upstream: Polymarket 8 · Kalshi 0 · Manifold 3. Retry later or use Event registry ingest.
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Yes 3% · No 97%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 15% · No 85%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 18% · No 82%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 5% · No 95%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 5% · No 95%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 2% · No 98%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 0% · No 100%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 6% · No 94%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will an AI company win a Nobel Prize by 2127?
Yes 61% · No 39%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will the next Claude Fable be able to autonomously make a watchable movie?
Yes 35% · No 65%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Will we get boosts on Manifold Markets that cost less than 10k by EOY 2026?
Yes 9% · No 91%
mixed quality / manipulation signals
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN