Intelligence
Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.
quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution · evidence materials: 1
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.
Prophecy fair estimate · yes
12%
Fair band 10–14%
Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality low · coverage 23%. · venues eligible 1/1
λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%
market_aware 12% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-10-07T21:17:33.435+00:00
Persisted · aware 12% · blind — · snap cutoff 2026-10-07T21:17:33.83+00:00
Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.
Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).
Loading freeze history…
Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.