Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Intelligence

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

manifold-ycrlq0g0qe · open · manifold

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integrityelevatedforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · manifold
Source →

Prophecy fair estimate · yes

15%

Fair band 13–17%

Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality low · coverage 23%. · venues eligible 1/1

λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%

market_aware 15% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-10-07T03:17:45.59+00:00

Persisted · aware 15% · blind — · snap cutoff 2026-10-07T03:17:45.982+00:00

Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.

asOf (local → ISO)

Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).

Loading freeze history…

Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.