๋ณธ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฑด๋„ˆ๋›ฐ๊ธฐ
Region: United States. Points-only markets ยท informational AI ยท no cash wagering. Terms
์•ฑยทํฌ์ธํŠธ ์˜ˆ์ธก์‹œ์žฅ โ€” ์‹ค๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ยทํ˜„๊ธˆ ๋ฒ ํŒ…์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค

Intelligence

What is your favorite phase of the moon? ๐ŸŒ‘๐ŸŒ’๐ŸŒ“๐ŸŒ”๐ŸŒ•๐ŸŒ–๐ŸŒ—๐ŸŒ˜๐ŸŒ‘

manifold-pncipiozdz ยท open ยท manifold
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Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integrityelevatedforecast_intelligence ยท papersignals: liquidity ยท horizon stub

quality low and/or manipulation elevated โ€” forecast caution

MEV/manipulation not eliminated โ€” advisory panel only ยท no betting CTA ยท missing inputs = UNKNOWN

Prophecy fair estimate ยท yes

50%

Fair band 48โ€“52%

Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality high. ยท venues eligible 1/1

ฮป market 100% ยท model 0% ยท creator 0%

market_aware 50% ยท market_blind โ€” ยท cutoff 2026-07-30T13:16:44.05+00:00

Persisted snapshots: none yet (written on ingest).

Market consensus
50%
Independent model
โ€”
Human / creator
โ€”

Point-in-time ยท asOf

Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 โ€” no latest leak.

Frozen revisions

Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).

Loading freeze historyโ€ฆ

Venue comparison

Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) โ€” not an arb quote.

  • manifold50% ยท 2026-07-30T13:16:34.631+00:00

Linked venues

Latest observations

  • model ยท 50% ยท 2026-07-30T13:16:44.05+00:00 ยท simple_prior_v1
  • venue_mid ยท 50% ยท 2026-07-30T13:16:34.631+00:00 ยท ingest_v1

Open probabilities JSON