Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

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Intelligence

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

manifold-u8nzallglz · open · manifold

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integrityelevatedforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · manifold
Source →

Prophecy fair estimate · yes

43%

Fair band 41–45%

Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality low · coverage 23%. · venues eligible 1/1

λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%

market_aware 43% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-09-20T17:16:38.419+00:00

Persisted · aware 43% · blind — · snap cutoff 2026-09-20T17:16:38.892+00:00

Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.

asOf (local → ISO)

Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).

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Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.