Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Intelligence

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?

manifold-przq859g60 · open · manifold

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integrityelevatedforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · manifold
Source →

Prophecy fair estimate · yes

7.0%

Fair band 5–9%

Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality low · coverage 23%. · venues eligible 1/1

λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%

market_aware 7.0% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-10-07T12:17:02.485+00:00

Persisted · aware 7.0% · blind — · snap cutoff 2026-10-07T12:17:02.884+00:00

Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.

asOf (local → ISO)

Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).

Loading freeze history…

Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.