Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

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Intelligence

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

polymarket-559657 · open · polymarket

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

mixed quality / manipulation signals · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · polymarket
Source →

Prophecy probability · yes

3.0%

λ market 65% · model 35% · creator 0%

market_aware 3.0% · market_blind 7.8% · cutoff 2026-08-18T08:16:00.977+00:00

Persisted · aware 3.0% · blind 7.8% · snap cutoff 2026-08-18T08:16:01.437+00:00