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Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms
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Intelligence

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

polymarket-559658 · open · polymarket

Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.

Forecast integritymoderateforecast_intelligence · papersignals: liquidity

mixed quality / manipulation signals · evidence materials: 1

MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA

Evidence materials · 1

Venue snapshots linked on ingest — informational provenance, not settlement proof.

  • Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?VENUE_SNAPSHOT · polymarket
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Prophecy probability · yes

10%

λ market 65% · model 35% · creator 0%

market_aware 10% · market_blind 14% · cutoff 2026-08-18T08:16:03.968+00:00

Persisted · aware 10% · blind 14% · snap cutoff 2026-08-18T08:16:04.422+00:00

Market mid
8.0%
Model
14%
Creator

Linked venues

Latest observations

  • model · 14% · 2026-08-18T08:16:03.968+00:00 · simple_prior_v1
  • venue_mid · 8.0% · 2026-08-18T08:15:40.163+00:00 · ingest_v1

Open probabilities JSON