Intelligence
Display only. Fused prophecy_probability is not a bet offer and does not move funds on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Prophecy points markets.
quality low and/or manipulation elevated — forecast caution
MEV/manipulation not eliminated — advisory panel only · no betting CTA · missing inputs = UNKNOWN
Prophecy fair estimate · yes
16%
Fair band 14–18%
Band = venue + dual span (not a calibrated CI). Quality high. · venues eligible 1/1
λ market 100% · model 0% · creator 0%
market_aware 16% · market_blind — · cutoff 2026-08-04T17:16:42.589+00:00
Persisted snapshots: none yet (written on ingest).
Re-fuse probabilities at a cutoff (UTC). Malformed asOf returns 400 — no latest leak.
Immutable export snapshots (revision + content hash).
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Latest venue_mid per venue (multi-source) — not an arb quote.