Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T07:15:14.554Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-5 before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? manifold · open	99%	99%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If the first state to hold a Democratic presidential primary is not South Carolina, who will the nominee be? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Netanyahu hugs/embraces Trump and/or Zelenskyy in July 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which design proposal will the ECB select for the next series of euro banknotes? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many of my July 20–26 applications will lead to an interview invitation? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026? manifold · open	21%	21%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will be true about Elon Musk-funded Mel Gibson Odyssey movie? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which party will win the most seats in the next Polish parliamentary election? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When/If Will The World No Longer Need Humans [THE SINGULARITY]? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the next Claude Opus make a better paper shredding simulator than Claude Fable 5? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which team will win the Redbull Streamer Games 2026 (Ludwig) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Are my fasting glucose, LDL and Triglycerides all in good shape? manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
On August 7th will Claude Opus 5 be above GPT 5.6 Sol on LLM agent arena? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
At what valuation will Anthropic IPO? (buckets within $1-2T) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will be the most streamed artist on Spotify this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will be the most streamed album on Spotify this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many internship interviews will I receive by 5/30/2027 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If Stripe acquires OpenRouter by EOY, will it be for ≥$10B? manifold · open	74%	74%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many users will Bluesky have at the end of 2026? 🦋 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will be the most streamed song on Spotify this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will someone Managram me 200 mana until market close? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	1	—	Sign in
More than 3.5 fights in cafe galery manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Stripe acquire OpenRouter by EOY? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027? manifold · open	62%	62%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Does the actions of Israel in West Bank and Gaza are inhuman? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What day will iran attack Israel manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will an Atlantic hurricane form on or before August 20, 2026? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a soccer final between Spain and Argentina be repeated before 2027? manifold · open	3.0%	3.0%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will DDR DRAM exceed 32 Gbit per-die density before 2029? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "Mathematicians are Feeling the Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Clash of Clans July Monthly Finals - Who will win the Golden Ticket? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Overall, how happy are you with Manifold? (started 2026-07-24) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What year will the Community Movie release? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will major Ozon fulfillment center or logistics facility get destroyed by drone attack before September 1, 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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