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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T06:15:14.968Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
How will I rate Halliwell2019? (+Free Lottery) manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will magomed ankalaev win his fight on the 25th of july manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will magomed zaynukov win his fight on the 25th of july manifold · open	72%	72%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will any Givewell Top Charity get a grant from Project for Awesome 2027? manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will "Relitigating the Race to Build Friendly AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Game 9 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Game 10 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Game 11 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Game 13 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Game 14 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Game 12 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which team will win the 2030 FIFA World Cup? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
AOC will be first female POTUS? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Kimi K4 released in 2026? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Toronto Blue Jays defeat the Boston Red Sox in Boston today? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many times will I masturbate between this market’s creation and July 31? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will France's next president officially apologize to Algeria for colonization? manifold · open	47%	47%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
NCAAF (2026) Regular Season Team Points manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will Starship flight 16 happen? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If an AI catastrophe occurs (1000+ linked deaths), it will be... manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Gavin Newsom be the favorite for Democratic Nominee on Dec. 31, 2026? [Per Polymarket Data] manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Alvarez join barca this summer manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I reach 2027 CF rating before 2027 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2026 commonwealth games? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will the first Eurovision Song Contest Asia show happen? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Donald Trump be physically present in the White House at 2029 January 20th 23:59 pm? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Donald Trump be physically present in the White House at any point on January 21st 2029? manifold · open	15%	15%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Angie Velasco win in La Velada against Alondrissa? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Gavin Newsom cease to be the favorite Democratic Nominee before the end of 2026? [Per Polymarket Data] manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will my sister be at sleepaway camp on August 1? manifold · open	90%	90%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Deportes Temuco win at least five of the last 15 games of the season? (Caixun Primera B) manifold · open	67%	67%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Ashwin smoke tomorrow? 7/24 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Deportes Temuco vs Copiapó (Aug 3, 2026) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which team will win season 19 (Japanorama) of Jet Lag: The Game? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
🇵‍🇹 Portugal vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales [UEFA Nations League] ⚽ manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Ronaldo score in his final match for Portugal? manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)? manifold · open	99%	99%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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