Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T09:15:14.543Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026? manifold · open	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If I choose to undergo past life regression hypnosis, what will I have been? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will win the 3x3 Men's Basketball event at the 2026 Commonwealth Games? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will happen successfully during Starship flight 14? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many Hinge matches will I get in my first 7 days? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will GPT-6 out-benchmark Opus 5? manifold · open	75%	75%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which one of week 2's NFL games will have the rarest score? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How will the cosmological lithium problem be solved? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many of the eight top unsolved Erdős problems will be solved before 2035? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many times did Donal J. Trump defecate today (July 26, 2026) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "Duane Arnold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[Add options] @Parallax love life prop bets 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
rate limit test market manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks? manifold · open	85%	85%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tim Hua concede his bet? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I gain more then 30 lbs before 2027? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will twitter / x.com be open source before September? manifold · open	29%	29%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will win the Scottish Premiership 2026/27? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
кто станет на пост главы совета ориона? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will GPT-6 release introduce a different size/performance tier structure? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If I work for a16z, will I meet Marc Andreessen by EOY? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will England or Spain win the 2030 FIFA World cup? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will France or Argentina or England or Spain win the 2030 world cup? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will there be a rover on Pluto? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bryan Johnson dunk a basketball before 2036? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will France or Spain win the 2030 FIFA World cup manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will France or Argentina win the 2030 world cup? manifold · open	23%	23%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Spain or Argentina win the 2030 world cup? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough? manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the documentary, "Instadocs: The prediction market games" be available on Netflix in July? manifold · open	86%	86%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will the first-round vote share of the Greater Manchester mayoral election be? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "The Long (Self-)Correction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026? manifold · open	62%	62%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

Showing page after cursor 2026-07-26T16:16:44.455+00:00 · First page