Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T11:15:14.954Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
How much money will I spend on Manifold in 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will I start my first job? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which streaming service will win the most Emmys? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Max(Openai R&D expense, Anthropic R&D expense) on each company's 2026 income statement manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will 2 or more total HRs be hit in the Cardinals v Cubs game on 7/27? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will OpenAI cease operations or acquired for less than $500 billion before 2040? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[10k mana bounty] Looking for a dataset lost in the internet manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Trump be reelected again manifold · open	9.4%	9.4%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB World Series winner - National vs American League manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
this will hapen bevore august 1st 2026 manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will sylvanos be added to rivals of aether 2 by the end of 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will elliana be added to rivals of aether 2 by the end of 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
will i play Black Ops 7 on July 27th 2026? manifold · open	64%	64%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
how many times will trump say china until july 30th 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Trump impeached before Iran war's end? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Next Codex banked reset? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many days of school will I "skip" in the 2026-2027 school year? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? manifold · open	24%	24%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2027? manifold · open	23%	23%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Should Manifold Markets create more types of markets? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will any cloned human organs, including the organs of viable cloned human infants, exist by EOY 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What color will Pantone Color of The Year 2027 be closest to? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which specific sexual act pleasantly surprised you the most? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Next Codex unbanked reset? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who of the unstable SMP will post this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Canada have at least 1GW of space to ground power transmission in 2045? manifold · open	24%	24%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
The Big Claude by Anthropics Market 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027? manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (cosmos asymptotics) manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (cosmos all) manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How hard will it be to import my prereqs into the California Community Colleges system given my graduate degree? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
F1: Who will win the 2026 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will more than 7 robot substitutes be used in any FTC match today? manifold · open	1.0%	1.0%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August? manifold · open	19%	19%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bryan Johnson dunk in 2026? manifold · open	24%	24%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Grok 4.7 out-benchmark Opus 5? manifold · open	44%	44%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Washington Nationals by 2 or more runs on Monday, July 27, 2026? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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