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Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T10:19:12.395Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Which country has the most islands?🏝️ manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time? manifold · open	81%	81%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
New Mersenne Prime found before 2028? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I destroy my keyboard? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2027, according to Gallup? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Americans' confidence in the Supreme Court decline in 2027, according to Gallup? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Americans' confidence in the presidency decline in 2027, according to Gallup? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Bahia (BA)? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Americans' overall confidence in US institutions decline in 2027, according to Gallup? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Americans' confidence in large technology companies decline in 2027, according to Gallup? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many candidates on Labour to Win's CLP slate will get NEC seats after the 2026 election? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	0	—	Sign in
How many candidates on Restoration's CLP slate will get NEC seats after the 2026 election? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which company will operate the largest AI datacenter campus at the end of 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many CLP candidates supporting the Reset the Labour Party statement will get NEC seats in the 2026 election? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the 2028 Dem ticket be Kamala as prez, AOC as VP? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
how much will 1€ be on july 27th 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If the 2028 Dem ticket is Kamala/AOC, will they win? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What's 9+1? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will an active NFL player be publicly documented surfing at a California beach during the 2026 Preseason? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will SSI do anything I consider interesting before 2027? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
New wave of mobilization in Russia announced manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I plad Black Ops 7 on July 28th 2026? manifold · open	57%	57%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will my Manifold Markets net worth reach 14K by August 26, 2026? (Reached 9,555 on Day 65.) manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Are you a robot? manifold · open	44%	44%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
is europe a country? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Outcome of West Indies vs Pakistan Test series (Jul-Aug 2026) manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	0	—	Sign in
On 31 December 2029, will the gap between Manifold's and Metaculus's "AGI" forecasts exceed 4 years? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "OpenAI's myopia keeps causing alignment problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
On August 30th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What is Park Ji-soo (TWICE)'s birthday? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will RFK Jr. leave the position of HHS Secretary by the end of 2027? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Anthropic buy >1GW of capacity from Australian data centres by EOY 2027? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB (July 28, 2026): Will the San Diego Padres defeat the Colorado Rockies by 2 or more runs? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Rayan Cherki be a starter for France at Euro 2028 or the 2030 World Cup? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Metaculus Summer Cup Winner (Add yourself) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Outcome of the Bank of England MPC rate decision on Thursday 30th July 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which company's revenue in 2026 will grow by at least 50% in 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
TK666 Bangladesh – Trusted Online Platform at MegaTK666 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What Team will win the 2026 SEC Football Championship Game manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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