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Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T04:19:18.361Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Which riders will win at least one stage the 2026 Tour de France Femmes? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which parties will become part of the Russian Parliament (State Duma) after the 2026 elections? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will the first "Breakthrough” problem in FrontierMath: Open Problems be solved? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title? manifold · open	23%	23%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos personally travel to the Moon aboard a vehicle from one of their own companies before 2036? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[Mega Market] Who will win gold medal at 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will the first “Major advance” problem in FrontierMath: Open Problems be solved? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Do Manifold users think that Model UN is dumb? (resolves end of 2026) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I make USAJMO in 2027? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will James Micheltorena make the Mathcounts team this year manifold · open	63%	63%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Dec 31 2027? manifold · open	24%	24%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Larry Cao Get A GF by 9th Grade manifold · open	63%	63%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Before reading this poll did you know that if Caps Lock is on and you hold shift, you can type lowercase letters? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which teams will win at least one match at the 2027 Rugby World Cup? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Loop Gear SK07 reach 90% of its stated 2800 lumen max output after 30 seconds of runtime on turbo mode manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Aella's Magic Button poll: which side gets more votes? [SHORT FUSE] manifold · open	95%	95%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will win ballon d'or 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will the Copom decide on the Selic rate on August 5, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Is my friend’s sister-in-law having a boy or a girl? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
For which team will Vita Vea play his first snap of the 2026 NFL Season? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Do you feel more connection with your ancestors from distant lands or the predecessor inhabitants of where you live? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan? manifold · open	57%	57%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Abdul El Sayed win the Michigan Democratic primary for senate by 10.00000% or more? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will there be a recession / downturn by the end of 2050 that makes me stop believing "stocks only go up"? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will a new country join the European Union before 2027? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which AI companies have destroyed rare books? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win exactly 2 games against the Seattle Mariners in their July 28–30, 2026 series? manifold · open	44%	44%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "You (Yes, You) Need A February 2020 Checklist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) win 6 Yusho in 2026? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a rider from Team SD Worx - Protime win Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Pedro Vs Tavares manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
are bananas really yellow? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
are apples human made? manifold · open	1.0%	1.0%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
is the sun hotter than the moon? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
preferred notebook size? 📓 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night? manifold · open	57%	57%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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