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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T02:15:14.742Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will Trump wear glasses in August? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I attend Citadel (a Hack Club hackathon)? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Should nursing homes and assisted‑living facilities be allowed to serve alcohol to residents at social events? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
KX8 Bangladesh – Premier Online Casino & Sports Betting Site manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Silver futures price August 2026 - beat the statistics manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Bitcoin price August 2026 - beat the statistics manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reach $850M domestic gross by September 13, 2026? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Gold futures price August 2026 - beat the statistics manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will there be a successful legal challenge to the US tariffs on Brazil that started July 22 manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will @Parallax have a baby by the end of 2027? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Anticipated release of Epstein files still a thing in first half of 2027? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct? manifold · open	87%	87%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I be jobless at some point before end of 2027? manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Claude Fable 5 VS GPT 5.6 Sol: which model is more useful? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which company will have the #1 Chatbot Arena model on January 1, 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Is Greg Yang represented by an infinite dimension lie algebra manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture? manifold · open	3.3%	3.3%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Apple stock go up? manifold · open	64%	64%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
mostplay Bangladesh – Top Online Casino & Sports Betting Site manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026? manifold · open	16%	16%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026? manifold · open	16%	16%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Do you think you’ll ever talk to someone who’ll be alive in the 2100s? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Tour de France Femmes 2026 GC Top 10 Game [READ DESCRIPTION] manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026? manifold · open	71%	71%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
NFL: Will the Green Bay Packers finish 1st or 2nd in the NFC North AND win 10+ games in the 2026–27 regular season? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will AWS S3 globally have more downtime 2027 than 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of August 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Was https://dread.technology/janus-two-futures named after repligate janus? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time? manifold · open	28%	28%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a Hyundai or Ford M-Sport Car win the 2026 WRC ueno Rally del Paraguay manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (Tipler singularity) manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will the final result of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election be declared? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How often will I exercise in August? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will be the most streamed album on Spotify this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom in August? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I leave the house every day in August? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day in August? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
lv18 Bangladesh – Official Online Casino & Betting Platform manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What will be the most streamed song on Spotify this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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