Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T22:15:14.676Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
USMV at least Ṁ1000/share for at least 48 continuous hours before September? manifold · open	12%	12%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
How many different riders will wear the Yellow Jersey in the 2026 Tour de France Femmes? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time? manifold · open	74%	74%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Gustavo Petro be outside Colombia on August 7, 2026? manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tesla officially report building 10,000+ Optimus robots in 2026 (1/5 of its own 50k-100k target)? manifold · open	9.1%	9.1%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a Democrat win Tennessee's 2026 governor election? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Fed raise interest rates in 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What maximum value will Russian retail petrol price index by cbonds.ru (CFRI) reach in August 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If I get a tetanus shot for my scrape will I regret it? manifold · open	7.5%	7.5%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Glosso have over 10000 total users by EOY 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year? manifold · open	73%	73%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many Amazon reviews will The 12 Levers have by the end of August 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will one-boxers be more aligned with the Pope or the US President on July 31, 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (anthropic) manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which of these career paths will 80,000 Hours list as a current priority at the end of 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will NYC have a city owned grocery store operating in Manhattan at the end of 2029? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will win DEATH BATTLE: Kai vs Toa Tahu? (Ninjago vs Bionicle) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many points will the 2026/27 Premier League Champion finish with? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Should Daniel Penny have been acquitted? // Is a16z a good company? [Multi-select] manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will trump announce a new US strike on Iran before August 10? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which Desktop Computer OS do you prefer to use? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
On what days will I be productive? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I stay in masters this season? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many Codex resets this week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What % of the vote will Nigel Farage win in the 2026 Clacton by election? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Hillcrest CityFest 2026 report an estimated turnout of over 72,000 attendees? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will OpenAI or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026? manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Anthropic or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026? manifold · open	85%	85%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Meta or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Vot Paybox claime reward moonpay connect manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
OpenAI’s Astra released between...? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a stronger model by the end of 2026? manifold · open	44%	44%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? manifold · open	54%	54%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
will the gambia merge with senegal by the end of 2030? manifold · open	4.6%	4.6%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Elon Musk visit a country in the Middle East in 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (rogue's gallery) manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the EU have another major treaty before 2035? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

Showing page after cursor 2026-08-03T15:16:44.857+00:00 · First page