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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T18:15:15.023Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Bitcoin price on August 8? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (anisotropic universe) manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
By what year will data center construction be largely automated? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Primary for governor by 10.00% or more? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Barack Obama or Hasan Piker, who will be seen next with Abdul El Sayed? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
If Opus 4.6 can pay back its loan, will it? manifold · open	75%	75%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
CAR Panthers vs ARI Cardinals, Aug 6th manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the OpenAI hardware device be a portable puck that sees, speaks, and moves? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Andy Ogles TN-05 Republican nominee? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	0	—	Sign in
Will there be another tweet on official AI Digest twitter about the Claude Opus 4.6 Bayesian Loan incident in next 10d? manifold · open	85%	85%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
TOMB Winner (add your team) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026? manifold · open	28%	28%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed? manifold · open	54%	54%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will any of these high profile people offically endorse Francesca Hong? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[PROP BETS] Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What colors will I eat today? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will The Beatles' Carnival of Light be released or leaked before 2030? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Javadoodles reach 3 million subscribers on Youtube by the end of 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many subscribers will Javadoodles have at the end of 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035? manifold · open	91%	91%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
My phone has shut down spontaneously 7 times in <4 hours. Will T-Mobile fix this problem by August 8 at 1 pm Pacific? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Nmt trade nft manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What share of the vote will Yabloko get in the September 2026 State Duma election? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will The Onion adjust their AI policy to allow some forms of generative AI by the end of 2030? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
UK 2027 Defence spending as percent of GDP manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB: Will the Texas Rangers sweep the Baltimore Orioles OR will the 3-game series total 26 or more runs? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
2026 Us House Ca-34 winner? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
2026 Us House Ca 7 winner? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? manifold · open	7.6%	7.6%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will fully AI generated osu! beatmaps made by melokai.com will be used by mappers to create a starting base before 2028? manifold · open	75%	75%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Summer 2026 Discord UI change manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will Google Gemini hack a company during testing before Gemini 3.5 Pro gets released? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which Games will Georgia Bulldogs Football win during the 2026 Season? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	0	—	Sign in
Which anime convention will the next Hololive English concert align with? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Toronto Blue Jays OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the player that scores the first TD in the HoF game also score a TD in the regular season? manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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