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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T15:15:14.555Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
What will be the max depth at the Mt Mansfield Snow Stake for the 2026-2027 season? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the top player in AoE2 lose against an AOE2 AI by EOY 2027? (must be at least 3 games) manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Anthropic release a newer Claude Sonnet model before September 1, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Experimental Lottery 22 (Ṁ120 jackpot) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will two Millennium Prize problems be solved in the same year? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Tour de France 2027 Winner manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will Strait of Hormuz daily transits reach 40+ vessels on any day before September 20, 2026? manifold · open	27%	27%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Loreen win the Melodifestivalen 2027 selection? manifold · open	67%	67%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[incentive market] I apply for (thing) in next 72 hours manifold · open	96%	96%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
One Piece 1191 : will Scopper Gaban die ? manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (path integral cosmology) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the St. Louis Cardinals OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Copa America: Winner manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
🇮🇱🇵🇸 Will Israel begin withdrawing troops from Gaza under Trump’s 15-point plan by August 31, 2026? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What colors will I eat today? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many total Erdos Problems will be solved by the end of the year? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which country will win the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will I complete my goal by tomorrow night? manifold · open	58%	58%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will an image model be better than GPT Image 2? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Chinese humanoid robot companies ship 50x more units than US companies by EOY 2027 manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Chinese humanoid robot companies ship 50x more units than US companies by EOY 2026 manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the first woman president of America have previously been a governor? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will Donald Trump die? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
MLB: Will the Tampa Bay Rays defeat the Oakland Athletics by 2 or more runs on Monday night? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will there be an event held at Lighthaven between Aug 24 - Sept 10 manifold · open	80%	80%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
By when will Demis Hassabis leave Google? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than Gemini 3.5 Pro? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will TOMB get delayed by more than 30 minutes? manifold · open	29%	29%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will DeepSeek V4 Pro GA be better than GPT-5.6 Sol? manifold · open	57%	57%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many traders will I have at the end of 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
[Google Trends] Will Pangram be more popular than GPTZero by EOY 2026? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How many traders will I have by the end of 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will users be able to donate unused AI-token allowances to open-source projects by 2027? manifold · open	16%	16%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will https://x.com/repligate/status/2086237469843087758 turn out accurate/prescient by mid-2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
What type of threat are we going to face in 2100? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Would TurnTrout beat William Eden in Offworld Trading Company? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Martin B Jensen: rate of ppl creating a new enzyme''identifying a new pathway' with claims attached in 2027 10x of 2026 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will https://x.com/maxxyung11 and Daniel Burger both raise from the same VC by EOY2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Wei Dai get more than 2 months of GPT5Pro in 2026? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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