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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T13:15:15.107Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will Real Sociedad defeat Atletico Madrid? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms? manifold · open	68%	68%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI or Anthropic file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027? manifold · open	7.0%	7.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027? manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Anthropic file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2027? manifold · open	3.0%	3.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Canada–EU trade top C$270B before 2040? manifold · open	63%	63%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Man United defeat Man City? manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I exercise every single day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the StarCraft game announced at BlizzCon 2026 really come out in 2030 or earlier? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I get a date for hoco? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY? manifold · open	3.7%	3.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Over 500 arrested for public nudity in Iran before midnight Christmas Eve? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Tadej Pogacar win Hell of the North in 2027 (11th April) manifold · open	71%	71%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any Week 1 NFL Game end in a scorigami manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI release a GPT model named after a >1 solar luminosity object (like Betelgeuse/Sirius/M81) by EOY2029? manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 form before October 1? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a player better than Messi? manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate Vilenkin 1984? (+free lottery) manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any candidate get 50.000% or more of the vote in the 2026 Senate election In Texas? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Abdul El-Sayed win by 7 points or more? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Do you like 14% odds? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Knights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy? manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Manifold market exist in 2050? manifold · open	82%	82%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
🏀 Will Victor Wembanyama score 31+ points in the Spurs’ first game of the 2026–27 NBA regular season? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? manifold · open	29%	29%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026? manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Bournemouth beat Brentford? manifold · open	54%	54%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will there be OVER 2.5 total goals in Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest on Sep 12? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will there be OVER 3.5 total goals in Chelsea vs. Hull on Sep 12? manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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