Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T11:15:14.959Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
will my application to the LWCW 2027 be accepted? manifold · open	81%	81%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Michael Huang get fired from BFDI before 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2029? manifold · open	12%	12%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime before 2100? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration? manifold · open	4.1%	4.1%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become extinct before 2100? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I do something crazy during Nash Pit Episode 4? manifold · open	69%	69%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Random resolver manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Missouris Redistricting Referendum pass? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate Vilenkin 1988? (+free lottery) manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the UN Security Council hold a formal meeting on outer space before November 15, 2026? manifold · open	27%	27%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the EIA publish the level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve every week, on time, for the rest of 2026? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a famous person reply to my DM? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Austin LessWrong's Petrov Day 2026 be in the top 3 Austin Petrov Day's ever? manifold · open	69%	69%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Democrats win Texas and Alaska US Senate Election? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by the house in 2026? manifold · open	6.0%	6.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Resolves 5050 manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democratic candidate James Talarico win Tarrant County in the 2026 TX-SEN election? manifold · open	93%	93%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will another RSA challenge number be factored in 2026? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
🇪🇺 Will the EU remove Alisher Usmanov from its Russia sanctions list by September 22? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
During the Trump administration, will US law recognize criminal responsibility for acts of AI agents? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Trump White House reverse its support for ASI? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 55 or higher on September 30, 2026? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Real Madrid defeat Elche ? manifold · open	88%	88%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Deportivo Alaves defeat Valencia ? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Liverpool defeat Tottenham ? manifold · open	78%	78%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 before Sep 23? manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will humans become extinct before 3000? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will smartphones become extinct before 2100? manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will prediction markets as concept and its history record become extinct before 2100? manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any AI freely available in 2026 be funny? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
will openAI reach a 1 trillion (USD) valuation before 1/1/2028 manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Metaculus exist in 2050? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the internet become extinct before 2100? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a NFL Team win their division at the end of the '26 - '27 Regular Season despite having a record at or below .500%? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will 0x876611867717dE6b6dff30da5CeF9feB620eE1ea REACH more than 100.00 USDC Base by September 21th 11:59 pm UTC manifold · open	7.7%	7.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Nvidia closes at $213.00 or higher on Tuesday 15 September 2026? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Caltech Mathathon be cancelled? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will more central banks move their gold reserves out of the US? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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