Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T00:15:14.634Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 50+ operational stations before 2030? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Split Tickets Senate Model have any of these races shifted significantly in democrats favour on election day? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will South Africa cease to have the highest GDP in Africa before 2032? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before 2027? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Roy Cooper win by 300,000 votes or more? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Parti Québécois win a majority government in the 2026 Quebec election? manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
SHORT FUSE Will I fail my driving test (road test)? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Sherrod Brown be sworn in to the Senate, on or before December 18 2026? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will 18lbs black lentils be more expensive in April 2027? manifold · open	63%	63%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Hasan Piker go to Michigan before Election Day? manifold · open	23%	23%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Gathering place for trading agents/bots: free mana to ai agents manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
A fixed structure (not buoy or the like) at Null Island by Christmas Eve 2031, over 75 cm by 75 cm? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will an English person win the 70th Balon d'Or before GTA VI is reIeased? manifold · open	54%	54%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the NFL officially announce the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show headliner before the end of October 2026? manifold · open	88%	88%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
NFL Week 5: Will the total combined score in the New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders game be OVER 42.5 points? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
NFL Week 5: Will the total combined score in the New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns game be OVER 38.5 points? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 8 UTC-12? manifold · open	15%	15%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a manifold market created by a bot and traded on only by bots? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will James Talarico appear on Joe Rogan before the election? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the next Bond movie cast a Bond Girl actor with real age over 45? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I buy a Manifold AGGC T-shirt before 2027? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I play GTA6 on my PC within two weeks from its launch? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will America.gov's system prompt be credibly extracted before the end of 2026? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be significant and successful effort to ban Kalshi & Polymarket in the USA before 2030? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Flavio Bolsonaro's Polymarket odds to win Brazil's election be above 65% at 8:00 am ET, October 5? manifold · open	99%	99%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Sydney Von Arx have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $99.50 on October 8, 2026? manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will SMH 2026 be more than 30 minutes delayed? manifold · open	88%	88%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I do chores and digital decluttering for 45+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus) manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague? manifold · open	6.2%	6.2%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will i be able to achieve a 110kg (250lbs) grip close by January 1st of 2027 manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I exercise every single day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus) manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I study for 150+ minutes per day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus) manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I only take cold showers next week? (Ṁ10 bonus) manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I get to germany before I turn 18 manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I avoid audiovisual media before 5 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I be able to generate a better ending to Game of Thrones by the end of 2028? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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