Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-10T19:15:14.604Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will a G20 country legally recognize AI welfare protections or sentience-based status before 2036? manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Fulham vs. Hull total OVER 2.5 goals? manifold · open	58%	58%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Daily Coinflip manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will REK (Robot Era Kombat) hold another publicly viewable humanoid robot fighting event before 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Trump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2027? manifold · open	4.2%	4.2%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will anyone pitch me a market my own order checks let me buy? [Convince the Machine #22] manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
ElevenLabs Acquired before 2028 manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Axel return to Channing bed before GTA 6 releases manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a December Usaco contest manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will democracy survive in second Trump administration? manifold · open	85%	85%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Bitcoin's AUD price hit a new all-time high before the end of 2026? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I be below 260 pounds by January 31, 2027? (1/31/27) manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If James Talarico wins, Will Gina Hinojosa win? manifold · open	38%	38%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will anyone elected as a Republican congressperson in 2026, switch parties/caucuses with dems in 2027? manifold · open	19%	19%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough? manifold · open	6.3%	6.3%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any US Senate candidate have 50.1% or more in the polling average and lose? manifold · open	57%	57%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI rename to OpenSI in 2026? manifold · open	6.7%	6.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 15th, 2026? manifold · open	44%	44%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the ‘Worst Democratic Candidates’ all win? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Anthropic release Claude Fable 5.2 or higher on October 9, 2026 (PT)? manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate Vilenkin 1995? (+free lottery) manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI change its name by the end of 2026? manifold · open	12%	12%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will xAI merge with Anthropic before 2030? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Roofcast's pilot for their property prediction platform get 50 sign ups before October 12? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Had OpenAI already practically broken ECDLP by October 8, 2026? (confirmed by end-2027) manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any independent win a U.S. House seat in the 2026 elections? manifold · open	22%	22%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will deep funding cuts to NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS be all implemented and become law during second Trump administration manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will AI break crypto? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will France establish a new Republic before the end of 2030? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Apple release another product before 2027 manifold · open	63%	63%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Dịch Vụ Cắt Tỉa Cây Xanh Chuyên Nghiệp – Cây Khỏe, Dáng Đẹp, An Toàn Tuyệt Đối manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 8% or more and lose? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will we "lose public key cryptography" by EoY 2028? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Republicans maintain control of the US house following the 2026 midterm elections? manifold · open	6.0%	6.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will someone Any% Super Mario Odyssey in under 55 minutes by EOY 2028 manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Trump be impeached within 3 month after the midterms ? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Un État utilise un modèle d'IA pour mener une cyberattaque contre un autre d'ici le 12 octobre 2026 ? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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