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Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-12T22:15:14.988Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
By 2028 will there be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the StarCraft game announced at BlizzCon 2026 really come out in 2030 or earlier? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I get a date for hoco? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY? manifold · open	3.7%	3.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Over 500 arrested for public nudity in Iran before midnight Christmas Eve? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Tadej Pogacar win Hell of the North in 2027 (11th April) manifold · open	71%	71%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will pogacar participate in la vuelta 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any Week 1 NFL Game end in a scorigami manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI release a GPT model named after a >1 solar luminosity object (like Betelgeuse/Sirius/M81) by EOY2029? manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 form before October 1? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will China ban Open Source AI before the United States manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be any public agreement on frontier AI between China and the US or American AI companies before 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a player better than Messi? manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate Vilenkin 1984? (+free lottery) manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any candidate get 50.000% or more of the vote in the 2026 Senate election In Texas? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Abdul El-Sayed win by 7 points or more? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Do you like 14% odds? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Knights Templar restored as a personal prelature of the pope during Pope Leo's papacy? manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Manifold market exist in 2050? manifold · open	82%	82%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Ulrich Siegmund become the Prime Minister of Saxony-Anhalt by the end of the year (2026)? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
🏀 Will Victor Wembanyama score 31+ points in the Spurs’ first game of the 2026–27 NBA regular season? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute? manifold · open	29%	29%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026? manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? manifold · open	56%	56%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Bournemouth beat Brentford? manifold · open	54%	54%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will there be OVER 2.5 total goals in Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest on Sep 12? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will there be OVER 3.5 total goals in Chelsea vs. Hull on Sep 12? manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Everton? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will there be OVER 2.5 total goals in Sunderland vs. Arsenal on Sep 12? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Brighton beat Coventry? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Manchester City beat Manchester United? manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Leeds United beat Newcastle United? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
MLB: Will the Dodgers sweep the Reds OR will the series total 36 or more runs? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
NCAA Football: Will Texas beat Ohio State by 2 or more points on September 12, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the world population be 7 billion or less at any point before 2035? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Lazio beats AC Milan \| Soccer Serie A match \| 12th September, 2026 manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

Showing page after cursor 2026-09-13T16:16:32.46+00:00 · First page