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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T21:15:14.450Z · ok=false · ledger may be stale · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
By what year will I be able to vibecode better Oblivion dialogue ~for free? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will ACR launch the next challenge before 8pm pst manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
2026 NCAAF: Which team will win the MAC Conference Championship? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will OpenAI release a new line of models by the end of the year? manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	0	—	Sign in
Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Google conventionally acquire Mechanize by the end of 2026? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Google acqi-hire Mechanize by the end of 2026? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Oilrats reach 250k subscribers by the end of August? manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Who will be officially announced as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms? manifold · open	8.4%	8.4%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Free Lottery (isotropic universe) manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6? manifold · open	58%	58%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14? manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Dairy Queen have an active, open restaurant location in Vermont by September 29, 2029? (9/29/29) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Nasdaq Composite close 15% or more below its all-time high by April 2, 2027? (4/2/27) manifold · open	— NO_SIGNAL	—	—	—	1	—	Sign in
Which of the following public figures will be the first to pass away by the end of 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Which will be the best meme posted in #memefold in August 2026 according to Manifold? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton break up before December 31, 2027? manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the official daily high temperature in San Francisco reach 68.0°F or higher on Saturday, August 8, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	—	Sign in
What advantages does the Greenluck platform offer new users compared to other services? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
How safe is it to use poker solvers to analyze your game, and where is the line between learning and breaking the rules? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
When will SpaceX launch 2 starships within 24 hours? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed? manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Looking for the Best Graphic Designing in Ludhiana? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Michigan U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Winner? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027? manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	high	Sign in
Will "The Brink Of War" earn more than $20M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	high	Sign in

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