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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-11T08:20:35.218Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will Democrat Chris Pappas win New Hampshire Senate election by 10% or more? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democrat Peggy Flanagan win Minnesota Senate election by 10% or more? manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the 2027 presidential French elections be decided at the first round? manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Manchester City beat Liverpool? manifold · open	47%	47%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will $500 Obamacare rebate checks start going out by Oct. 31 2026? (ACA) manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026 manifold · open	32%	32%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection? manifold · open	33%	33%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? manifold · open	7.3%	7.3%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Holder Battle: YES vs NO manifold · open	49%	49%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will James Talarico be leading by 3% or more in the upcoming YouGov Poll? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will at least 2 Big 12 teams make the 2026-2027 College Football Playoff manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? manifold · open	16%	16%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a non-hyperlinear group be proved this month? manifold · open	88%	88%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will England’s earnings-to-house-price ratio top 12.5% in 2040? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
hlw manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the 2026 Laver Cup be decided before the final match? manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Team Europe win the 2026 Laver Cup? manifold · open	71%	71%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Hay88 – Khám Phá Thế Giới Giải Trí Trực Tuyến Đa Dạng Và Hiện Đại manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will REAL MADRID beat ATLETICO MADRID today?? manifold · open	1.0%	1.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026? manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will it snow in september in estonia? manifold · open	19%	19%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democrat Angie Nixon win Miami Dade County in the Florida Senate Election? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will I follow the "benevolent observer challenge" next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus) manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027? manifold · open	21%	21%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will JerryRigEveryting be able to bend the iPhone Duo in half with his bare hands? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
陈伯20号是否开播 manifold · open	29%	29%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
US airstrikes Yemen in September? manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Escalation of conflict in the Middle East before October? manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any Millenium Problem in Biology be solved by EoY 2027? manifold · open	42%	42%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate del Vilenkin 1993? (+free lottery) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Viv show Zach her tits by Sun Sep 20 AoE? manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the US–Denmark–Greenland security agreement be signed before October 15, 2026? manifold · open	86%	86%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tiger finish 8.05 problem set 2 in time? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Orbitz the beverage return before 2031? manifold · open	5.9%	5.9%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democrats win 2026 Iowa governor election? manifold · open	64%	64%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
In part 99 of the "Eating at every chinese buffet until i get food poisoning", did mullet_review get Food Poisoning? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Jujutsu Kaisen chapters 223–236 be theatrically screened by EOY 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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