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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-10T20:17:56.662Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033? manifold · open	1.0%	1.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030? manifold · open	22%	22%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033? manifold · open	15%	15%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	68%	68%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	2.0%	2.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026? manifold · open	68%	68%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026? manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	15%	15%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm a new Supreme Court justice before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	4.0%	4.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump veto at least 5 bills in 2027? manifold · open	35%	35%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump veto at least 5 bills in 2027? manifold · open	5.0%	5.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028? manifold · open	27%	27%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Dashboard release day Senate predictions be correct? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of release manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a second fully evolved mono-Flying type Pokemon released by the end of 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2027? manifold · open	31%	31%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will 2014 UZ224 be numbered and named by EOY 2040 manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI retract any of its AI-Driven Mathematical Results before 2027? manifold · open	21%	21%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will SPX reach 8,000 this week (by October 9, 2026)? manifold · open	14%	14%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will SPX reach 8,000 by the end of October 2026? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the New Zealand Green Party get 15.00% of the party vote or more at the 2026 Election? manifold · open	46%	46%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the LeetCode daily after Oct 7 (301) be about brackets or parenthesis? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a human win the annual 2027 Human vs Horse "Marathon" Race? manifold · open	58%	58%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
AnyPS5 reaches 100% in October? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will AI-powered tools become the main way businesses find B2B contacts by 2028? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Anthropic announce the deprecation of another Claude model before November 7, 2026? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Was the Irkutsk plague produced by gain-of-function testing? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the DJIA close below 51,000 by October 14, 2026? (10/14/26) manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Russia blame Ukraine for its recent plague outbreak in the next 30 days? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the world become a dictatorship before 2050? manifold · open	12%	12%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Republicans have high turnout of voters in 2026 midterms? manifold · open	9.0%	9.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2029? manifold · open	28%	28%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Gaea's Cradle be banned in Commander Magic in 2026 or 2027? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

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