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앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-10T20:17:56.662Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
Will the next Claude Fable be able to autonomously make a watchable movie? manifold · open	47%	47%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will an AI company win a Nobel Prize by 2127? manifold · open	65%	65%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Treasury ease Russia sanctions beyond diesel (crude oil, gasoline or jet fuel) before Election Day, Nov 3 2026? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a second steel & fire type pokemon released by the end of 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a 7th playable Rotom pokemon form released by the end of 2029? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Is Dodds still alive? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democrats win 2028 white house election? manifold · open	69%	69%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Apple or Google launch native stablecoin functionality in their mobile wallets before 2029? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will we get boosts on Manifold Markets that cost less than 10k by EOY 2026? manifold · open	9.3%	9.3%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Generative AI become permanent part of our daily lives before 2030? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Labour UK party win reelection in 2029? manifold · open	41%	41%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the world have more far-right leaders in government in 2030s? manifold · open	20%	20%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
How will I rate Vilenkin 1998? (+free lottery) manifold · open	60%	60%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Kai Cenat have 25 million Twitch followers by the end of the year? manifold · open	59%	59%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Bitcoin reach A$200,000 before 1 January 2028? manifold · open	30%	30%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a commercially available direct flight from the continental USA to Thailand by the end of 2029? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Leo Esaki become longest lived nobel laureate ever? manifold · open	28%	28%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will NOAA SWPC issue a G4 (Severe) or stronger geomagnetic storm alert before November 10, 2026? manifold · open	18%	18%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Democrats lose the house in the 2026 midterm elections? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will comic cons worldwide cease to exist before 2050? manifold · open	8.0%	8.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Lojbos infiltrate and destroy ma pona pi toki pona? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Chi vincerà il pallone d'oro??? manifold · open	61%	61%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will my new YouTube channel (MyCoJo) receive 30,000 views by December 31, 2026? (12/31/26) manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will @jim's Lightcone Commons project be allocated funding in October 2026? manifold · open	36%	36%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Russia deliver the promised 4.8 billion tons of diesel? manifold · open	43%	43%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will 0x7A68AB21211e1338b1b019FFD65f69a0fcA8c6A4 RECEIVE more than 100.00 USDC Base by October 15th 11:59 pm UTC manifold · open	6.6%	6.6%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Roger Marshall win the Kansas senate election by 11% or more? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Do you like 6% odds? manifold · open	6.2%	6.2%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will i successfully end racism tomorrow manifold · open	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
will ray Ferrari release another song before 2027? manifold · open	45%	45%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a pedestrian be visible in the next 5 seconds? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will a pedestrian be visible in the next 5 seconds? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Bournemouth beat Sunderland? manifold · open	48%	48%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Arsenal beat Nottingham Forest by 2 or more goals OR will there be a red card? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan be livestreamed by the end of 2027? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict? manifold · open	34%	34%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027 be related to the Israel/Palestine conflict? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Tottenham Hotspur beat Coventry City by 2 or more goals OR will there be a red card? manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will integer multiplication be proved possible in O(n) time by June 30, 2027? manifold · open	6.7%	6.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
EPL: Will Manchester United beat Leeds United? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in