Region: United States. Points-only markets · informational AI · no cash wagering. Terms

앱·포인트 예측시장 — 실거래·현금 베팅이 아닙니다·배당은 뮤추얼 풀·수수료 반영 참고치

Forecast Intelligence

Event Radar

One event · every probability. Multi-venue consensus, model delta, and quality — display only, no live orders.

Probability ingest: 2026-10-10T20:17:56.662Z · ok=true · intelligence ops

Prophecy Probability는 정보 표시입니다 — 베팅/주문 CTA 없음. Community points는 /markets· research paper는 /paper.

SortUpdated |Δ|QualityStatusAny Open ResolvedCategoryAny manifold

Event	Prophecy	Market	Model	Δ	Src	Quality
This statement is a lie. manifold · open	52%	52%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Brazil Election 2026: Will Flávio Bolsonaro question the legitimacy of Brazil's 2026 presidential election results? manifold · open	17%	17%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Un-e influenceur-se de la droite américaine est révélé-e comme étant une IA d'ici le 12 octobre 2026 ? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Un nouveau modèle prend la tête du leaderboard d'Artificial Analysis d'ici le 12 octobre 2026 ? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Un site utilisé par des agents IA pour se coordonner est découvert d'ici le 12 octobre 2026 ? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
OpenAI Releases another batch of mathematics results before 2027? manifold · open	65%	65%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tiger Zhang have a good sleep schedule for the next month? manifold · open	21%	21%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Une démission est annoncée dans un grand laboratoire d'IA d'ici le 12 octobre 2026 ? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tetra apply to that job by 11th October? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tetra clear the junk off the treadmill in the next three days? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Tetra publish a tag of glowfic in the next week? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the second Trump administration fund AI? manifold · open	75%	75%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be new prediction market company before 2030? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Robert Caro's 5th Lyndon B Johnson book release before the end of 2028? manifold · open	55%	55%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Russian plague cause a pandemic before 2030? manifold · open	6.6%	6.6%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will the Democratic party be banned before 2050 manifold · open	11%	11%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Abdul El Sayed win Michigan senate 2026 election? manifold · open	70%	70%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Republicans win the 2026 midterms election? manifold · open	13%	13%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will my current Manifold streak last until 2027? manifold · open	53%	53%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
new merch added to Manifold shop before 2027? manifold · open	23%	23%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Republicans maintain house control in 2026 midterms? manifold · open	9.5%	9.5%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Zach Lahn win Iowa governor 2026 election? manifold · open	12%	12%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will 30-year treasury yields go above 6% before 2027? manifold · open	39%	39%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
OpenAI's proof of zero free region of Riemann zeta for Re(s)>7/8 shown to be flawed before 2027? manifold · open	8.7%	8.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a "Gentle Singularity"? manifold · open	40%	40%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Daily Coinflip manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will John Fetterman endorse a Republican before election day? manifold · open	28%	28%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will OpenAI announce it has resumed training its most capable models before November 1, 2026? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will Angus King endorse Troy Jackson in the 2026 Maine Senate election? manifold · open	15%	15%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will there be a new fastest rock type pokemon (non-mega) released by the end of 2029? manifold · open	25%	25%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November? manifold · open	37%	37%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	2.7%	2.7%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate end the legislative filibuster before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	7.0%	7.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027? manifold · open	66%	66%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will there be a federal government shutdown in 2027? manifold · open	50%	50%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	10%	10%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress? manifold · open	8.0%	8.0%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress? manifold · open	65%	65%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If Democrats win the Senate in 2026, will a Cabinet nomination be rejected or withdrawn before January 3, 2029? manifold · open	51%	51%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in
If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Bitcoin be above $250,000 at the end of 2030? manifold · open	26%	26%	—	—	1	low · 23%	Sign in

Showing page after cursor 2026-10-08T09:16:54.098+00:00 · First page